Tajikistan: Economy#

Tajikistan is a poor, mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, metals processing, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. The 1992-97 civil war severely damaged an already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production, and today, Tajikistan has one of the lowest per capita GDPs among the 15 former Soviet republics. Less than 7% of the land area is arable and cotton is the most important crop. Tajikistan imports approximately 60% of its food. Mineral resources include silver, gold, uranium, antimony, and tungsten. Industry consists mainly of small obsolete factories in food processing and light industry, substantial hydropower facilities, and a large aluminum plant - currently operating well below its capacity.

Because of a lack of employment opportunities in Tajikistan, more than one million Tajik citizens work abroad - roughly 90% in Russia - supporting families back home through remittances that have been equivalent to nearly 50% of GDP. Some experts estimate the value of narcotics transiting Tajikistan is equivalent to 30-50% of GDP.

Since the end of the devastating, five-year civil war, the country has pursued half-hearted reforms and privatizations, but the poor business climate remains a hurdle to attracting investment. Tajikistan has sought to develop its substantial hydroelectricity potential through partnership with Russian and Iranian investors, and is pursuing completion of the Roghun dam - which, if built according to plan, would be the tallest dam in the world. However, the project will take at least 8 to 11 years to construct and faces financing shortfalls and opposition from downstream Uzbekistan.

Recent slowdowns in the Russian and Chinese economies, low commodity prices, and currency fluctuations are hampering economic growth in Tajikistan. By some estimates, the dollar value of remittances from Russia to Tajikistan dropped by more than 65% in 2015. The government faces challenges financing the public debt, which is equivalent to 35% of GDP, and the National Bank of Tajikistan has aggressively spent down reserves to bolster the weakening somoni, leaving little space for fiscal or monetary measures to counter any additional economic shocks.

Economic Facts#

GDP (purchasing power parity)$25.81 billion (2016 est.)
$24.35 billion (2015 est.)
$22.97 billion (2014 est.)
note: data are in 2016 dollars
GDP (official exchange rate)$6.612 billion (2015 est.)
GDP - real growth rate6% (2016 est.)
6% (2015 est.)
6.7% (2014 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)$3,000 (2016 est.)
$2,900 (2015 est.)
$2,800 (2014 est.)
note: data are in 2016 dollars
Gross national saving12.9% of GDP (2016 est.)
12.7% of GDP (2015 est.)
13% of GDP (2014 est.)
GDP - composition, by end usehousehold consumption: 116.1%
government consumption: 14.5%
investment in fixed capital: 13.8%
investment in inventories: 4%
exports of goods and services: 22.8%
imports of goods and services: -71.2% (2016 est.)
GDP - composition, by sector of originagriculture: 29.2%
industry: 21.6%
services: 49.2% (2016 est.)
Agriculture - productscotton, grain, fruits, grapes, vegetables; cattle, sheep, goats
Industriesaluminum, cement, vegetable oil
Industrial production growth rate0.8% (2016 est.)
Labor force2.209 million (2013 est.)
Labor force - by occupationagriculture: 46.5%
industry: 10.7%
services: 42.8% (2013 est.)
Unemployment rate2.5% (2013 est.)
2.5% (2012 est.)
note: official rates; actual unemployment is much higher
Population below poverty line35.6% (2013 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage sharelowest 10%: NA%
highest 10%: NA% (2009 est.)
Distribution of family income - Gini index32.6 (2006)
34.7 (1998)
Budgetrevenues: $1.841 billion
expenditures: $1.985 billion (2016 est.)
Taxes and other revenues27.8% of GDP (2016 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)-2.2% of GDP (2016 est.)
Public debt6.5% of GDP (2013 est.)
Fiscal yearcalendar year
Inflation rate (consumer prices)8% (2016 est.)
10.8% (2015 est.)
Central bank discount rate4.8% (31 December 2013)
6.5% (31 December 2012)
Commercial bank prime lending rate26% (31 December 2016 est.)
25.84% (31 December 2015 est.)
Stock of narrow money$653.3 million (31 December 2016 est.)
$773 million (31 December 2015 est.)
Stock of broad money$2.085 billion (31 December 2014 est.)
$1.778 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
Stock of domestic credit$1.241 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$1.401 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
Current account balance-$331 million (2016 est.)
-$470 million (2015 est.)
Exports$530.8 million (2016 est.)
$572 million (2015 est.)
Exports - commoditiesaluminum, electricity, cotton, fruits, vegetable oil, textiles
Exports - partnersTurkey 19.7%, Kazakhstan 17.6%, Switzerland 13.7%, Iran 8.7%, Afghanistan 7.5%, Russia 5.1%, China 4.9%, Italy 4.8% (2015)
Imports$2.34 billion (2016 est.)
$2.825 billion (2015 est.)
Imports - commoditiespetroleum products, aluminum oxide, machinery and equipment, foodstuffs
Imports - partnersChina 42.3%, Russia 17.9%, Kazakhstan 13.1%, Iran 4.7% (2015)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold$416.9 million (31 December 2016 est.)
$494.3 million (31 December 2015 est.)
Debt - external$3.976 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$3.938 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - at home$2.272 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad$NA
$16.3 billion (31 December 2009 est.)
Exchange ratesTajikistani somoni (TJS) per US dollar -
8.364 (2016 est.)
6.1631 (2015 est.)
6.1631 (2014 est.)
4.9348 (2013 est.)
4.76 (2012 est.)